Estimating Running Time and Demand for a Bus Rapid Transit Corridor

Project summary:

Demand for future Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) service is predicted based on frequency and reliability of service and socio-demographic characteristics of the region around the corridor. Average passenger counts for existing transit service along the corridor in combination with existing commuting patterns in the region are used to estimate passenger demand. The goal of this research was to estimate running time and potential passenger demand for a proposed BRT corridor serving the area around Highway 81 in the Twin Cities region. Because no service existed along the study corridor except for a small portion (route 14), running time was estimated based on existing transit service running along similar corridors in the region (Highway 47 where routes 10 and 854 were already in service is a suggested route) and through the use of probe vehicles running along both corridors to establish a benchmark for comparison between the two corridors. It was anticipated that running time and demand models produced from the study could be integrated with other cost benefit software that evaluates the effects of intelligent transportation systems technologies on BRT running time (IBAT). In addition, sensitivity analysis was developed to evaluate different scenarios of changes to service specification that can help improving running time and increasing passenger demand. The findings of this research introduced a benchmark for comparison between transit and private vehicle running time for general applications in Hennepin County and created additional understanding of the potential for BRT service in the Twin Cities region.