Investigating real storms and the impact of potential climate change adaptations.

Project summary:

Previous work on extreme storms has focused on changes in the 24-hour precipitation depth. The storm intensity, the distribution of rainfall, and antecedent conditions are also important for urban stormwater management. Changes in the precipitation distribution upon which infrastructure was designed determines the risk communities encumber with respect to flooding, property damage, and human safety. In this project, researchers will aim to quantify trends across Minnesota in storm intensity, storm duration, and distribution of rainfall over a range of time periods to re-evaluate the assumptions for design storms. The project will also investigate the change in infiltration through pervious surfaces and other green infrastructure in response to re-evaluated extreme storm intensity and distribution of rainfall. In addition, different watershed adaptation strategies will be evaluated for relative performance and cost, with a focus on strategies sensitive to precipitation intensity, such as infiltration in pervious areas.

The objectives of this project are to (1) quantify stormwater system vulnerability to flooding for a range of re-evaluated precipitation maximum storm intensity, storm duration, and distribution of rainfall, and (2) quantify the relative efficacy and costs of green infrastructure and conventional engineering adaptation approaches to mitigate flooding as contrasted in three communities exhibiting different growth patterns, forms of stormwater networks, and in differing climate regions of Minnesota. The project will use modeling and data to improve forecasting of the magnitude of impacts from extreme weather events, understand impacts to transportation infrastructure holistically when facing climate change, and assess flood management strategies on a systemic level to clarify best practices for roadway and road-adjacent infrastructure resilience.