Identification of Factors Affecting Freeway Accidents

Project summary:

This project will investigate factors affecting the occurrence and severity of traffic accidents on the Twin Cities' freeway system, using three different statistical models. The first model will rank sections of the freeway according to accident rate, where the rates will be computed using Empirical Bayes methods. The second model will develop regression equations for predicting accident rate from knowledge of ADT and roadway geometry. The third model will be dynamic and will describe the likelihood of an accident occurring in a short time period as a function of traffic conditions. The results of this project will be useful for programming safety improvements, evaluating the effects of safety improvements, and in identifying the potential safety benefits of Advanced Traffic Management.